Los Altos Prices Fell 7% Last Year. Buyers There Still Paid 7.5% Over Asking.
Los Altos homes sold at a median of $4,510,000 in May, down 7% from a year earlier. That same month, the typical Los Altos home closed at 107.5% of its list price after 9 days. Prices are falling and buyers are still bidding each other up. Both numbers are true, and if you only read the first one you’d draw the wrong conclusion about what it takes to buy there.
This happens because the year-over-year price change and the sale-to-list ratio measure two different things. Most people treat them as one number. Here’s what each one is telling you.
What each number measures
The year-over-year median compares what closed this May against what closed last May. It’s a comparison of two batches of houses. When a city sells 25 homes in a month, which 25 sold moves the median as much as anything the market did. A quiet month for the biggest estates drags the median down even when demand is climbing.
The sale-to-list ratio compares what a home sold for against what the seller asked. It’s a live read on what buyers did when a real house hit the market at a real price. Above 100% means buyers competed and bid past the ask. It doesn’t care what sold last year.
One is a rearview mirror with a mix problem. The other is a demand gauge with a current reading. They can point opposite directions without either being wrong.
The 10 cities we track, sorted by sale-to-list
| City | Median | YoY | Sale / list | Days on market | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palo Alto | $4,300,000 | +3.6% | 108.7% | 11 | 53 |
| Sunnyvale | $2,781,750 | +3.0% | 107.6% | 9 | 56 |
| Los Altos | $4,510,000 | -7.0% | 107.5% | 9 | 25 |
| Mountain View | $3,080,000 | +19.2% | 106.7% | 9 | 29 |
| Cupertino | $3,550,000 | +5.5% | 105.5% | 14 | 23 |
| Menlo Park | $4,100,000 | +12.8% | 104.6% | 15 | 22 |
| San Jose | $1,650,000 | -6.9% | 103.8% | 16 | 378 |
| Saratoga | $4,200,000 | -5.7% | 102.9% | 10 | 23 |
| Los Gatos | $3,550,000 | +15.3% | 101.7% | 24 | 30 |
| Atherton | $11,200,000 | +34.4% | 101.2% | 34 | 11 |
Sort that table by year-over-year change and the order scrambles. The two columns don’t line up. The city with the biggest price gain sits at the bottom of the competition list, and the city with the biggest price drop sits near the top.
Where the two numbers disagree most
Los Altos is the cleanest case. Down 7% year over year, third-highest sale-to-list of the 10, tied for the fastest sales at 9 days. If you walked in expecting a soft market because the median fell, you’d lose the house.
Atherton is the mirror image. Up 34.4% year over year, the largest gain of any city we track, and the weakest competition on the board: 101.2% of list after 34 days. Atherton closed 11 sales in May. At that volume one or two enormous trades swing the median hard, which is what a 34.4% jump is describing. The sale-to-list ratio says buyers there took their time and paid close to the ask.
Mountain View is the case where both numbers agree, and it’s worth naming. Up 19.2%, 106.7% of list, 9 days. Price up and buyers competing. That’s a market doing what the headline says.
Los Gatos deserves a note too. Prices up 15.3%, but homes sat 24 days and closed at 101.7%. Rising median, patient buyers.
Saratoga is the one that complicates the story
Saratoga sold in 10 days, second-fastest of the 10, yet closed at 102.9%. Fast and not competitive at the same time. Speed and overbidding usually travel together, and here they don’t.
We won’t pretend to know why from one month of data. What it does tell you is that “how fast” and “how far over ask” are also separate questions. Three different numbers, three different readings. Any one of them alone is a guess.
What to do with this
If you’re buying, the sale-to-list ratio in your target city is the number that predicts your offer strategy. A falling median doesn’t earn you a discount in Los Altos at 107.5%. Budget for the overbid.
If you’re selling, the year-over-year median is the number your neighbor quotes at a barbecue. It’s not what your house will fetch. Sale-to-list plus days on market tells you whether to price at the ask and let buyers compete or price to a number and wait.
If you’re deciding whether you can afford any of this, run your equity and income against all 10 cities in our RSU home buying power calculator.
FAQ
Why did Los Altos prices fall while homes still sold over asking?
Because the two numbers measure different things. The year-over-year median compares which homes closed this May against which closed last May, and with 25 sales the mix of homes moves that number. The sale-to-list ratio of 107.5% measures what buyers paid against what sellers asked, right now. Demand stayed strong while the mix of what sold changed.
Which number should I trust more when buying?
Sale-to-list, for offer strategy. It’s the fastest read on whether you’ll face competition, and it moves before the median does. Use the median for context on price level, not for predicting your negotiating position.
Does a high year-over-year gain mean a city is competitive?
No. Atherton posted the largest gain of the 10 cities we track at 34.4% and the weakest sale-to-list at 101.2%, over 34 days on market. In low-volume cities a few large sales can move the median without telling you anything about how buyers behaved.
Data: Silicon Valley Market Watch tracked city data, Redfin-sourced, for the period ending May 31, 2026. Medians are for single-family homes. Cities with low monthly sales volume, Atherton at 11 sales in particular, carry wider swings in median than higher-volume cities like San Jose at 378.
Silicon Valley Market Watch tracks these 10 cities side by side every month, same format, so you can see the trend instead of the anecdote. Bookmark this page and come back for the next one.